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Reading the tape on markets, macro and money. Short, sharp notes and videos by Sunil Garg.

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The Briefings

The daily 5AM Briefing podcast and flashcards, plus the Saturday US Macro deck.

Today's briefing

27 Oct 20263:42

Morning Podcast: Israel votes, Anthropic and Meta's AI money flood, Brazil reels, and the Fed meets

Israel goes to the polls with some 67,000 expats flying home to vote, while warnings of a renewed US-Israeli assault on Iran hang over the election and oil sits near $117. Anthropic filed its blockbuster IPO prospectus and Meta unveiled a $95bn share sale to fund its AI build-out. Lula's surprise re-election win sent the real to its steepest fall since 1999 and forced a trading halt in São Paulo. And the Federal Reserve decides on rates on Wednesday, the same day Britain's Chancellor delivers his Budget.

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MacroMacro: Fed week, a Budget, and a Brazilian shocktap to flip

MacroFed decision Wednesday: rates expected to hold as Big Tech reportstap to flip

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26 Oct 20266:17

Morning Podcast: Lula's record fourth term, Serbia's Vucic concedes, and a Fed week packed with Big Tech earnings

Lula comes from behind to win a record fourth term in Brazil, Serbia's Vucic concedes to the student movement after two years of protests, and Machado returns to Venezuela. Plus a Warsh Fed decision on Wednesday, 179 S&P 500 earnings reports including Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon, Audi's first US plant and SpaceX's reported $40 billion chip debt.

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25 Oct 20267:33

Morning Podcast: Countdown to war in the Gulf, a midterm map tilting left, and the AI trade turns into a rotation

Brent holds at $117 as a third US carrier group heads for the Gulf, Democrats widen the midterm map with Trump's approval at 36%, and money rotates from chips into cybersecurity as just 10 companies drive two thirds of S&P 500 profit growth. Plus France's protests and bond spread, Audi's first US plant and Moderna's cautionary tale.

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24 Oct 20265:25

Morning Podcast: Brent tops $117, the AI unwind turns into a credit story, and a Russian gas scoop in Alaska

Iran tensions push Brent to $117 as the US sends a third carrier group, AI-related debt suffers its biggest drop since 2022 after Meta's funding plan, and the FT uncovers secret Novatek control of a $25 billion Alaska LNG venture. Plus Amex layoffs, Instacart, Volvo Cars and Anthropic's IPO race.

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23 Oct 20264:35

Morning Podcast: Meta's AI funding shock, the biggest bond rally in two years, and $113 oil

Meta says it needs hundreds of billions to fund AI and drags the chip index down 7%, the 10-year Treasury yield plunges 19 basis points, and Brent hits $113 as Gulf attacks escalate. Plus OpenAI's valuation trim, Japan's inflation, Moderna and Southwest.

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22 Oct 20266:16

Morning Podcast: Musk backs a SpaceX–Tesla merger, Gulf tensions and a bond sell-off

Musk throws his weight behind combining SpaceX and Tesla, Saudi Arabia faces Houthi drone attacks while Iran's stored oil runs dry, and bond yields jump in France, the UK and the US. Plus earnings from Meta, Texas Instruments and IBM, and the latest analyst calls.

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21 Oct 20265:27

Morning Podcast: SpaceX's first profit, AI chip fear vs. hope, and a frozen US housing market

SpaceX posts its first profit as a public company and confirms merger committees with Tesla, Super Micro lifts its guidance as AI debt worries grow, and US pending home sales hit a record low. Plus Netflix's miss, Salesforce buying Braze, and a coin-toss Fed decision.